10 Reasons Scott Brown Wins the NH Senate Seat in 2014

The Right Place and the Right Time for GOP to Reclaim NH Senate Seat.

With former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown now officially in the race (well at least having formed an “Exploratory Committee) against Democrat incumbent Jeanne Shaheen, you can bet the Granite State senate challenge will go the length of the bar and out into the alley.  Many Democrats and even some extreme Republicans suggest that New Hampshire is the wrong state for Brown to be running.  On the contrary, it turns out Massachusetts was the wrong state for Brown, and New Hampshire is looking like precisely the right place, especially right now.

Yes there is a primary and yes as expected the cadre of un-electable alternatives to Brown are all clucking that the establishment is ignoring them, that Brown is a “Massachusetts liberal” and that he is a “carpet bagging” import to the Granite State… blah, blah, blah. The sad part about these folks is not one of them could get 20% in a general election against Shaheen.  They are yesterday, Brown is tomorrow, which is why in the end Scott Brown will win the GOP nomination, and ultimately help the GOP take back the US Senate by defeating Shaheen.

Here are 10 reasons why he wins:

1. Two Words: Barack Obama: With the presidents approval ratings barley hovering in the deadly 40% range, it is quite certain that Senator Shaheen will not be inviting him to campaign with her in New Hampshire any time soon.  The president has become the albatross around the necks of democrat incumbents and Shaheen, like most, will likely disappear into the witness protection program if she even senses the president might attempt a fly-over of the state between now and Election Day.

The line the GOP will use against Shaheen is predictable, but effective.  It will go something like this: “In a state that values liberty, independence and personal freedom, how could we ever believe Jeanne Shaheen will represent us independently when she’s voted 98% of the time with Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and President Obama…we can do better.” Game, set, and match.

2. Two more words: Obama-Care: The Federal Healthcare Reform Act is as unpopular now as it was in 2010 when Brown defeated “Marsha” Coakley, the heir apparent to Ted Kennedy’s senate seat in deep blue Massachusetts. In fact it’s even a bigger problem for Democrats like Shaheen who supported it not just once, but again and again during the government shutdown.  Shaheen said NO to extending individual mandates, NO to ending an exemption for herself and other members of Congress from exclusion in the program and NO to any changes, tinkering or adjustments to the bill of any kind. Obama-Care is an abysmal failure and all those who supported it now say; let’s keep it and fix all the stuff that’s wrong with it that we already foisted upon you in the original bill.  Pretty weak call to arms when the GOP has said Obama-Care was a bad idea from the start when the Democrats rammed it through Congress. It was a bad idea then, and according to most public opinion polls it’s a worse idea now.  It’s especially problematic in New Hampshire where the state exchange has only 1 participating provider with huge areas of the state without coverage. Some New Hampshire citizens have to drive more than an hour to a physician or hospital for care. What’s more, thousands of Granite Stater’s were informed they would lose their health insurance coverage even though Shaheen and Obama promised, “If you like your doctor and you like your private insurance, you can keep it.” PolitiFact called that one “The lie of the year” and Shaheen has only just begun to feel the heat from GOP leaning independent groups who have and will continue to tag her as responsible for the Obama-Care mess. Republican’s like Brown say repeal it, and/or reform it fast!  Brown actually referred to it in his speech on Friday as “A big political wave is about to break in America and the Obamacare Democrats are on the wrong side of that wave.” Here’s the unavoidable and troubling fact for the state’s senior senator: Shaheen is Obama-Care and Obama-Care is Shaheen. Game, Brown.

3. The “Carpetbagger Charge;” If not Shaheen, then one of the special interests supporting her will surely try the old carpetbagger charge.  Unfortunately even some of Brown’s GOP rivals have already attempted this desperate and undignified attack. I hope they keep doing it, as it is a license for disaster.  Do the Democrats and even some dim-witted Republican’s have any idea just how many Massachusetts residents have slipped across the border to live in New Hampshire to avoid the Bay State’s onerous sales and income taxes over the years?  A lot of voters can clearly relate to Brown’s move north.  In fact the only thing most Granite Stater’s might ask him? “What the Hell took you so long?”  Robert Kennedy and Hillary Clinton were never considered “carpetbaggers” when they moved to New York for the sole reason of running for the US Senate, why is Brown any different? This will blow-up in the collective faces of Brown’s opponents and be seen as insulting to a lot of New Hampshire residents who now thankfully call the state their adopted home.  Another note: Brown and his family have owned a second home here in New Hampshire for more than 30 years.  His mother lives here, as does his sister. Scott Brown was born at the Portsmouth Navel Shipyard and raised his family here summer after summer in Rye. Scott and Gail Brown have likely spent more time in New Hampshire over the last 5 years than Senator Shaheen has, given her near constant and meddlesome presence in Washington since being elected to the senate in 2008.

4. Retail Politics: Scott Brown’s Specialty; Brown is an incredible campaigner.  The guy’s a tri-athlete, an iron man, and in his past campaigns his energy and grit on the campaign trail was something to behold.  Here’s a guy who enjoys retail politics like few politicians I’ve ever seen. Given New Hampshire’s reasonably small geography he will likely be able to cover the entire state on many days 3 times or more!  Brown doesn’t walk through parades…he runs. New Hampshire likes it’s retail politics and Brown is a specialist in that department. Watch Senator Brown work a crowd, nobody does it better.  While Shaheen is timid, cautious and soft spoken, Brown relishes in the back and fourth of asking for and earning the vote.  Look for his green pick-up in your neighborhood…a lot!

5. Independence/Independent: While Shaheen will be running from her dogmatic and near perfect Obama dictated voting record, Brown will be reminding Republican and Independent voters in the Granite State that he was never afraid to vote independently as the Senator from Massachusetts. It is a fact that the largest voting block in Libertarian leaning New Hampshire are Independents. (See “Live Free or Die” on every license plate in the state!) Brown will cite, and should that while he has a strong record of fiscal conservatism, he was also never afraid to stand up to his own party and vote independently when he thought it was the right thing to do.  This may hurt him a tad with some on the extreme right of the party, but at the end of the day they will not decide this election, swing voters will.  If ever there was a time for a little independence in Washington, now is that time. Advantage Brown.

6. In the Money: In 2012 Scott Brown raised and spent more than $35 million in his Massachusetts’s Senate campaign.  Not to mention all those dollars that found their way into The Bay State from outsiders who supported his candidacy.  In this department I’d call the New Hampshire Senate race in 2014 almost a draw… almost. Shaheen will have no problem raising money, and she will have no problem attracting lots of help from zaney billionaires like George Soros and other lefties from around the country. She is a prodigious fundraiser, but has she ever raised anywhere near $35 mill?  I’m thinking not.  Money, media and message are the keys to any successful campaign, but the thing that’s got Washington Dems and Team Shaheen in a tizzy right now?  They’re running against The $35 Million Dollar Man!  That keeps them up at night, and it should. Advantage Brown.

7. Shaheen’s Been Around: Multiple terms in the state senate, three terms as New Hampshire’s Governor and one term in the United States Senate.  You will not hear Jeanne Shaheen attempting to define herself as a fresh new face.  Incumbents are an endangered species in 2014, especially incumbents who can be painted as career politicians.  2014 is going to be a change election...advantage Brown!

8. The Environment: 2014 is shaping up to be a good environment for the GOP.  Obama’s stumbling and bumbling on both the domestic policy side (with a still skittish economy, burgeoning national debt and the fact that he and his cronies are spending our tax dollars faster than the boys over at Treasury can print them) and on the foreign policy side, looking weak and tepid as Vladimir Putin pushes us around is making Americans increasingly and understandably grumpy.  Fatigued by Obama and the shrill partisanship on both sides inside the beltway, Brown will have the wind at his back in a second term mid term election in which the party controlling the White House almost always loses seats. Advantage Brown!

9. The Elizabeth Warren Factor: You know what would be a great idea?  If Jeanne Shaheen understandably decides like every other democrat incumbent in America to avoid a photo-op with Obama. She might consider that bastion of common sense Lady Elizabeth Warren of Cambridge, to come stand with her in New Hampshire. Both are members of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood of Senate liberals. Both are women who have already broken that oft talked about “glass ceiling”. After all it was Lady Elizabeth who turned out and ultimately banished Sir Scott to the hinterlands of Granite!  That would be fun to watch.  Warren touting independence and common sense to a group of Granite State voters? It would be a lot like the Kardashian’s speaking out on the issue of “family values!”  Lady Warren may want to stay far away from the Granite Wood during this the springtime of Jeanne Shaheen’s discontent.  Maybe it would be better if Lady Elizabeth were to hold a nice Cambridge fundraiser with a respectable Brie and a good crisp California Chardonnay at her Harvard Square Manse-quietly helping Shaheen raise a few shekels from Boston, New York, and California crazies. Yes… a much better idea and far lower key approach…me thinks! 

10. Brown’s fun:  Brown isn’t dower he’s downright indefatigable! He’ll be a hoot to cover, the press will have a blast with this campaign already making New Hampshire a national focus for the party to win back the senate.  Brown’s brand gets stronger not weaker.  If he runs like an alternative to the horrendous, partisan stamp for anything President Obama says and does and presents a powerful argument to the new kind of Republican he would be, he not only wins, Scott Brown becomes the logical and most marketable incarnation of electable Republican we’ve seen in a very long time.  That would make him the most important endorsement of the 2016 Presidential campaign on the GOP side from “First in the Nation” New Hampshire none-the-less! Even in the unlikely event that Brown falls short he’s already proven that there is still life on the other side of the US Senate.  A fact Senator Shaheen may very well soon discover for herself.