Newt Gingrich can’t be President. Not because of his $1.6 million Freddie Mac scandal, or his fake charity scandal, or his $300,000 ethics fine while Speaker, the arms dealer scandal, or any of his other personal and financial scandals. Newt Gingrich (or Rick Santorum) can’t be President because to be nominated, you need delegates. Those are real people that take time from their lives to go to conventions and represent you. Newt has lots of media coverage, but in the physical world where campaigns actually occur he can’t get 1141 delegates.

It’s hard for us to understand in New Hampshire, but people in many states see politics as a spectator sport. They don’t show up for local or off-year elections, they don’t know who their congressmen are, and they certainly don’t take off time to go to precinct, county, and state conventions as delegates. (And come to think of it, even in New Hampshire Newt couldn’t field a full slate of delegates… until our delegate total was cut in half to penalize us for our early primary). Unless they’re excited about a candidate (Paul supporters) or have some connection to political machines, they experience elections from their couch.

No candidates besides Paul and Romney filed in all the states:

VA - no Gingrich or Santorum - 49 delegates

MO - no Gingrich - 52 delegates, non-binding primary

D.C. - no Santorum - 19 delegates

So that's 101 lost for Gingrich, and 68 lost for Santorum.

Then, even when your campaign stops its Aegean cruise long enough to file, you still have to get people to sign up as delegates. Santorum and Gingrich only have partial slates of delegates in IL, OH, and TN, which together represent 193 delegates. They are missing different numbers of delegates, but these losses push Gingrich down to levels where he would have to have landslides in all the remaining states. Even with campaign contributors like Ashley Madison, it’s unlikely that all Republican voters will unite behind the guy who polls show can’t beat Obama.

Would South Carolinians have voted for Newt if they knew he couldn’t win? Of course not… people aren’t voting for “Mr. Freddie Mac” as a moral protest candidate. Once again, this careless ignorance goes back to the “spectator sport” attitude… except that most people actually know the rules of the sports they watch. A vote for Newt is at best a vote for a brokered convention. (Maybe that wouldn’t be so bad… surely delegates freed to nominate anyone of their choice would pick someone polling better against Obama than a disgraced ex-Speaker?)

So if they know they can’t win, why are Newt and Rick running? Book sales? Speaking fees? Political appointments to get them to drop out? Pure ego? All of the above? I certainly don’t know. But I do know that people looking for a candidate who can stop “Goldman Sachs” Romney before the convention only have one choice: Ron Paul.