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The Granite View

Women, Polls and Question 1

Three thoughts as Election Day approaches.

 

A few thoughts as we move closer to Election Day:

Women: For months I have been saying that women are smarter and more independent than any political strategist gives them credit for being, and a new poll from Gallup/USA Today appears to bear that out. According to this poll, female likely voters in the swing states are now split evenly between Obama and Romney, at 48 percent each. This poll has caused an uproar throughout the political land, not just because the President appears to have over-played his chauvinistic, condescending hand on this one, but because for years now there has been an assumption among strategists and talking heads that women will always break Democrat. 

No definable group of voters likes to be taken for granted and lied to, and women are no different. The fact that four out of 10 women still identify abortion as their leading issue in this campaign and yet are breaking toward the pro-life Romney would suggest that the whole fabricated “War on Women” strategy has collapsed. Or maybe it’s just an indication that honesty and character are even more important to these voters than abortion rights. 

Or – and I know this will make some of my liberal friends absolutely nuts – maybe when some of these women identify abortion as their number one issue, they are actually talking about protecting the right to life of innocent babies rather than the right to an abortion.

Polls: The polling in this race has gotten curiouser and curiouser, as Alice in Wonderland would say. For a while it seemed that many of the major polling outlets were oversampling Democrats and there was a suspicion among some that this was an intentional attempt to sway undecided voters. Now that polls are showing a steady slide toward Romney, we are told by Democratic strategists that polls can’t be trusted. Who to believe? 

I don’t know, but I do know this: We will not see nearly as many Democrats participating in this presidential election as we did in 2008, and any poll using the 2008 turnout numbers for their sample will have skewed results. I suspect the rate of participation will be somewhere between the 2004 and 2008 numbers. I also suspect that the shift we saw reflected in the polls after the first Romney-Obama debate will hold after the second debate. And finally, I suspect that if the President has a rebound after the debate the democratic strategists will go back to touting the polls again.

NH candidates and Question 1: I am genuinely fascinated by this. While declaring loud and long their opposition to a state income tax, neither Maggie Hassan, candidate for governor, nor Anne Kuster, candidate for CD-2, will declare support for ballot question 1, which will amend the New Hampshire Constitution to ban an income tax in New Hampshire. As a small-government conservative, the arguments for voting yes on this ballot question are obvious to me. The New Hampshire Advantage goes well beyond our pristine lakes and our friendly demeanor. 

By rabidly protecting our no-broad-based-tax status we have been able to protect our economy to some degree, even when the nation suffers a serious downturn. I would assume that this is at least in part why both of these women declare themselves to be against an income tax in their current races. Why then, would they not support this ballot measure? I don’t know the answer to that one either, but I think it’s an interesting question.

About this column: Jennifer Horn was the 2008 Republican nominee for U.S. Congress in New Hampshire's 2nd District. She has been an award-winning radio talk show host, newspaper columnist and small business owner. She is a long-time advocate for breast cancer research and support and lives in Nashua with her husband and five children. She recently announced her candidacy for chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party. Related Topics: Jennifer Horn

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Ted Sizer

12:50 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

I keep wondering when women will stop allowing democrats to put them in a corner. As if they have the final word on what women want/think!!
It's arrogant to say the least.

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Jan Schmidt

6:20 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Hello? As a Democratic woman am I allowed have the final word on how I, and the many women I've spoken with, want and think?

Women's health care IS an economic issue, making family planning widely available, age appropriate education for our young people, allowing the privacy and personal responsibility NH is known for are all elements of the issue.

Romney has no clue about what I and most other women and their families need.

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Mark Trafton

8:33 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012

Hi Ted,
And how do you know that women are allowing themselves to be put into a corner? Maybe you are oblivious to the fact that they think for themselves. Would you allow me to state, without knowing you, that you do not think for yourself? Put the shoe on that foot and think it over, amigo. Jan´s response to your narrow, disrespectful view of women says it better than I could. Ted, would you vote for someone who, never having lived in your shoes, would profess to know best to say whom you could marry and what you could do with your own body? I´ll bet you´d have the biggest Gadsden Flag "Don´t tread on me" flying in your front yard right away. Intelligent women that I know are flying that flag in a more significant way: by voting against people who assume reactionary positions on women´s reproductive rights and health care. Doesn't seem that anybody´s being coerced into a corner there. But given your bogus claims that a school in Exeter teachers radical Islam, readers on Patch, with all due respect, sir, are getting a sense that the reality you claim to see is a bit .... alternative.

Keith F Thompson

1:50 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Women- I agree with Ms Horn, women are smarter than they are given credit for. When Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Scott Brown or any other leading Republican has a gap with women, they trot out their mothers wives and daughters as proof they understand women. Women are smart enough to see through this. The birth control debate affects women in a way it does not affect men, and that will not change, not matter what illogical smokescreen the Republicans use.
Polls -Ms Horn performs some logical gymnastics and then asserts that Democrats will flip-flop in a similar way. She states polls only matter when they favor Republicans and then predicts Democrats will act the same way. The more disturbing point Ms Horn makes is her certainty that democrats will come out in lower numbers. Might that be her confidence in voter suppression efforts by the republicans? is that the only way you can win.?
Question 1- There is no political chance, none, that a broad based sales or income tax will pass in NH. What is the need for a Constitutional Amendment? Could it be a weak, but possibly effective attempt to drive up the participation of the republican base? Too bad for Ms Horn that NH isn't a ballot petition state. They could then add marriage equality and abortion to the amendments to drive up even more participation from their base.

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Mike black

2:51 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

And Keith, the self-proclaimed leader of the Brookline Democrats Society, continues his creepy hatred of Mrs Horn ...

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Jan Schmidt

6:21 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Mike's comment is a personal attack and therefore inappropriate

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Mark Trafton

8:40 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012

Mike Black,
As my kids say to me when I've misspoken, "Yeah, whatever." Keith T. takes on Jennifer Horn's points, rationally, one by one, and the best you can do is accuse Keith of hatred. I've gotta tell ya, amigo, that you won't win anyone to your way of thinking that way. It'll just galvanize opposition to on the part of rational, objective readers, and elicit support only from those few in our state that think Ms. Horn can do no wrong.

Rick Watrous

4:46 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

"Chauvinistic, condescending"?? Sounds like she's describing Romney and his "Binders full of women."

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Nancy Finch

7:38 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012

More insulting than Romney's binder comment was his suggestion for flex time for women so that we could rush home after work, care for the children and cook supper. He never did address equal pay for equal work.

News Flash

6:08 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Women push Romney into lead (+4)

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/

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News Flash

6:32 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Poll shows collapse in female support for Obama

Romney's lead stems from a recent surge in support from women voters

Female voters, particularly the blue-collar ‘waitress moms’ whose families have been hard-hit by the recession and unemployment, are the most-prized group of swing voters in 2012

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2218342/Obama-loses-lead-battleground-states-WOMEN-flock-Romney.html#ixzz29b9cFrY0

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Ernest

8:54 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

No one is suggesting a restriction on women's access to birth control . Not paying for your birth control pills does not mean you do not have access to them.

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ForThePeople

9:12 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Making women's birth control inaccessible to women by not covering it because of ideological reasons that not all of us share is what the problem is. Not everyone thinks that birth control is evil. Why should we be forced to adopt your lunacy?

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Dave Murry

10:30 pm on Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Translation: "we're better than you, you are idiots for being against birth control, your beliefs should take a back seat to our beliefs". Got it.

If someone can't figure out birth control, which is currently anywhere from free to just a few bucks, then they might be more concerned with where their next meal is coming from.

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Ernest

9:02 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012

Birth control is not a health issue. It's a pill to allow people to engage in certain sexual activity while avoiding the personal risk of pregnancy. Pregnancy is the result of a voluntary act. It's a condition that is 100% avoidable. Access to birth control drugs and methods is readily available and in many cases is available at no cost. Taxpayers should not have to foot the bill so people can engage in promiscuous sexual behavior, What's next? Asking taxpayers to foot the bill for sex toys? You want the pill so you can play without paying the price - then buy them yourself.

Rick

8:10 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012

It was very telling that Lamontange met with VA Governor McDonnell behind closed doors. McDonnell is one of the leaders on the war on women. You can be sure that he and Ovide were not discussing the cost of snowplowing. Women of NH, be afraid. Be very afraid...

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Ernest

9:04 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012

There is no war on women.

News Flash

9:09 pm on Thursday, October 18, 2012

Hillary trashes female whiners. You cant make this stuff up. (repost)

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82586.html

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Soujourner Truth

11:32 am on Sunday, October 21, 2012

I'm sure married couples will agree sex is optional in marriage, you can always choose to avoid it. So, I declare National Withholding Month in effect the day Romney/LaMontagne get elected. Dump Obama and other guys out there, you all with me on this?

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Lee

7:25 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012

Jennifer Horn takes up way too much space in this patch. I am so sick of hearing her misogynistic blather. Equal rights period. How hard is that to understand?
Republicans will crawl on their knees to protect a zygote, and abandon a baby in need the moment after it is born. Poor people have babies too, and they need to be fed and schooled and have health care. Forcing pregnancy on a woman is a ridiculous notion.

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News Flash

7:37 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012

Democrat Senators with a gender pay gap. That means these democrats pay men more than women:
•Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D., N.M.)—40 percent
•Sen. Jon Tester (D., Mont.)—34.2 percent
•Sen. Ben Cardin (D., Md.)—31.5 percent
•Sen. Tom Carper (D., Del.)—30.4 percent
•Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D., Minn.)–29.7 percent
•Sen. Kent Conrad (D., N.D.)–29.2 percent
•Sen. Bill Nelson (D., Fla.)—26.5 percent
•Sen. Ron Wyden (D., Ore)—26.4 percent
•Sen. Tom Harkin (D., Iowa)—23.2 percent

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News Flash

9:02 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012

Women should get an 18% pay raise that work in the Obama Administration immediately or Men should get an 18% pay cut. End of story.

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