Women, Polls and Question 1
Three thoughts as Election Day approaches.
A few thoughts as we move closer to Election Day:
Women: For months I have been saying that women are smarter and more independent than any political strategist gives them credit for being, and a new poll from Gallup/USA Today appears to bear that out. According to this poll, female likely voters in the swing states are now split evenly between Obama and Romney, at 48 percent each. This poll has caused an uproar throughout the political land, not just because the President appears to have over-played his chauvinistic, condescending hand on this one, but because for years now there has been an assumption among strategists and talking heads that women will always break Democrat.
No definable group of voters likes to be taken for granted and lied to, and women are no different. The fact that four out of 10 women still identify abortion as their leading issue in this campaign and yet are breaking toward the pro-life Romney would suggest that the whole fabricated “War on Women” strategy has collapsed. Or maybe it’s just an indication that honesty and character are even more important to these voters than abortion rights.
Or – and I know this will make some of my liberal friends absolutely nuts – maybe when some of these women identify abortion as their number one issue, they are actually talking about protecting the right to life of innocent babies rather than the right to an abortion.
Polls: The polling in this race has gotten curiouser and curiouser, as Alice in Wonderland would say. For a while it seemed that many of the major polling outlets were oversampling Democrats and there was a suspicion among some that this was an intentional attempt to sway undecided voters. Now that polls are showing a steady slide toward Romney, we are told by Democratic strategists that polls can’t be trusted. Who to believe?
I don’t know, but I do know this: We will not see nearly as many Democrats participating in this presidential election as we did in 2008, and any poll using the 2008 turnout numbers for their sample will have skewed results. I suspect the rate of participation will be somewhere between the 2004 and 2008 numbers. I also suspect that the shift we saw reflected in the polls after the first Romney-Obama debate will hold after the second debate. And finally, I suspect that if the President has a rebound after the debate the democratic strategists will go back to touting the polls again.
NH candidates and Question 1: I am genuinely fascinated by this. While declaring loud and long their opposition to a state income tax, neither Maggie Hassan, candidate for governor, nor Anne Kuster, candidate for CD-2, will declare support for ballot question 1, which will amend the New Hampshire Constitution to ban an income tax in New Hampshire. As a small-government conservative, the arguments for voting yes on this ballot question are obvious to me. The New Hampshire Advantage goes well beyond our pristine lakes and our friendly demeanor.
By rabidly protecting our no-broad-based-tax status we have been able to protect our economy to some degree, even when the nation suffers a serious downturn. I would assume that this is at least in part why both of these women declare themselves to be against an income tax in their current races. Why then, would they not support this ballot measure? I don’t know the answer to that one either, but I think it’s an interesting question.